Silver Shortage 2026: The Truth About COMEX Default Risks

I want a parachute. You know, I want a lifeboat because I don't know what's going to happen and I don't feel comfortable about it. And that not only the private individuals who are thinking that they need to have they they've been they've known they should have had something for years. They've done nothing about it. Suddenly they've woken up and said, "Oh god, time's running out. I better run." It's not me saying it. These are very important people. The heads of central banks, chief economists, heads of treasuries. I'm not saying it because they say it. I say it because I see it myself as well. It's perfectly obvious that when you live way beyond your means, time is running out. Cash may not buy you anything at all or certainly not as much as it did, but what you have in gold or silver will still be there and it will still be yours and you're not going to have to ask permission of some government or anybody for that matter to do what you want with it. And I think that's the feeling that people are getting. They're saying there's an awful lot going on the world. There's, you know, there's a hundred reasons why we need to be concerned about saving for retirement in the traditional way. Um, and I want something which gives me a plan B, a I want a parachute. You know, I want a lifeboat because I don't know what's going to happen and I don't feel comfortable about it. So it it doesn't it we've moved away from the situation of comparing precious metals with the inflation rate and into the situation of saying uh what let you know something's going to happen and I want to frontr run it. Yeah, we were just chatting with uh another person the other day and he mentioned that gold and metals are a gifin good and that's the defined as good where the higher it goes actually the more you want it and so it's sort of versus opposite you know price and demand you know it should the more expensive it gets the less I might want something but with gold or silver usually when the price goes up you you see that and that's a signal that actually I I need to have more of it actually and so maybe I agree with what you're saying that it seems like there's a bit of a a run might be too big of a word for it, but everybody is running to the physical medal all at the same time just in to try and anticipate what's going to happen. Well, well, here here we're into the behavior of the crowd, the the the mayhem of of the mob, if you like. Um, when these things happen, if you're smart enough and can see the psychology of people going forwards, you can play these things very well. Now, I I don't profess to understand the psychology of of people, but what what I do know is that when bull runs run, they can run far longer and way beyond what people expect. But we always must expect along the way to have some very sharp pullbacks. That is the nature of every bull market in history, whether it be stocks or precious metals or anything else. Bitcoin is a perfect example of that. you have you have these large rises then sudden pullbacks then another rise up to a new all-time high then pull back and and it goes on like that whether you're talking with stocks or gold or anything. So those who are into the market they're always going to be climbing what's called a wall of worry when you see the price at what looks like an all-time high you say ah it's at the top of the chart. They're all see the charts behind me it's all at the top you can't see it there. There we are. They're all at the top of the chart. It can't go any higher is the mentality because we as human beings have a tendency to believe that when we see something at the top of the chart, it's going to go back down towards the middle. And if we see it at the bottom of the chart, we think it's cheap and it's got to go back up to the middle. It's going to So the the the mind of humans is trained to look for patterns. So when something is different from the way it was, we're looking for a return to the norm, to the mean, return to the mean. So humans naturally, all there's two types of humans actually. A the majority of humans think that last week's price was the correct one. And the price you're seeing on the screen behind me must be a mistake. It's an anomaly. It can't be correct. So, I'm going to sell saying that mentally I'm thinking I'm going to sell my silver because I got to get out of here. But there's another army of people who are thinking I bet I want I've been wanting to buy it for a long time and I haven't done so. Now it's rising. I better hurry up before the price is higher next week. And that not only the private individuals who are uh thinking that they need to have they they've been they've known they should have had some for years. They've done nothing about it. Suddenly they've woken up and said, "Oh god, time's running out. I better run." So they're running into it. But we've also got the consumers of silver in terms of the manufacturing companies. Those manufacturing companies require a certain amount of silver to keep the production process going. Now they're hearing stories that there might be shortages out there. I'm not going to tell you whether I know whether there's a shortage or not. I don't know if there's a shortage. There could, but it looks looks to me like there is because we got multiple prices. We got, you know, price in Shanghai, which is different from the price in Comx. Then you go to a coin shop and try and buy some gold or gold or silver. They'll tell you one price, which is a huge premium above the spot. Then you then you try and sell them some of that price and they want they give you a huge discount on the price like like we've never seen before. You know, we got $20, you know, they're offering to buy it back, they're offering $20 below and to sell it to you, they want $20 above. You know, that's that's more than the entire price of silver a few months ago. Um, but why are they doing that? because even they don't know where the price is going to be tomorrow. They can't take the risk that they buy it off you and it collapses 10 or 20% next week and they can't take the risk to sell it to you because it might rise 10 or 20% next week. So they widened their margins to guarantee themselves a profit. Now eventually some uh calm will return to the market but not now. It's you know the market is at the moment is volatile. It's got to stay volatile. So we're going to have these big swings. Uh I I mean statistics says the next move will be up because when something's hitting an all-time high, nine times out of 10 the next move is another all-time high. That's just statistics for you. So the chances of the next move being a sharp move down is is about 1 in 10. Um but you know obviously at some point that we will we will hit a high whether it was yesterday or whether it's going to be tomorrow or 6 months from now. at some point we hit a high then we have a 20% pullback but that 20% pullback might come from $200 down to $150. We don't know. Um so but what I'm trying to say is in bull markets it's a wall of worry that is being climbed and at every moment in time there's a risk of a sharp pullback and when that happens people get shaken out. So coming back to your question of should you put all your money in silver? Well you're going to feel pretty awful if you do that and the next day happens to be the day that the bare market starts. So what what what I would suggest is you do you invest smaller amounts little by little. So no matter what happens, you will not ever feel like the last fool because the average price you'll pay if you buy on multiple occasions will always be less than the highest price ever. Therefore, you're not the world's last fool. I I think that's really precient advice. But in the comx, you mentioned the comx. What are what exactly are you seeing in the comix? Because I'm hearing stories like crazy stories like oh they might run out of silver but it seems like they have like 400 million ounces or something ridiculous. How could they possibly run out of silver? So first of all let's talk about how much silver they actually have. They've got 415 million ounces of silver as of today in Comx. 415 million which is divided into two pots. One is called the registered silver which is silver which is available for delivery to meet futures contracts and the other pot is called the eligible silver which means it's of the right size and shape but it doesn't have the documentation at the moment uh because the holders of that silver currently have no intention of making it deliverable to meet the contracts. They don't they're not they're not short and therefore they're not putting their their silver into the reg not for sale but it could be as soon as they say I want to sell it then it'll switch over. Yeah. So exactly. So eligible silver sometimes moves some of it moves into register silver which means it would end up being part of the uh futures contract for delivery. But most of the almost all of the eligible silver is not for sale. It's held by longstanding holders, big institutions.