The Math is Broken: Why Silver is Draining the COMEX 2026

When you sell silver forward, you get a higher price for it than spot. So you sell it forward, wait till the spot month, buy it back, and sell it forward. It's a guaranteed way of making money. If Donald Trump steps up and says, "We need 500 billion more in military spending. [music] And we have to have silver for our fanciest weapons that we used to each other with, then I guess 11 billion could easily go towards silver. It doesn't really matter. We don't have to know. We only have to listen to what silver is telling us about itself. Silver doesn't care who wants to buy it. Let's talk about how much silver they actually have. They've got 415 million ounces of silver as of today in Comx. 415 million which is divided into two pots. One is called the registered silver which is silver which is available for delivery to meet futures contracts and the other pot is called the eligible silver which means it's of the right size and shape. Some of it is held by institutions which trade silver. They're just not ready to sell it today, but at the right price, they'll move it. Um, but let's just talk about numbers. So, that 415 million is broken down at the moment into 113 million which is registered available for delivery. Do you know how many contracts how many ounces of silver outstanding in the March contract? March is coming up. March is a big one. So, I'll tell you the answer. in March. As of today, if all of those contracts are called for delivery, which is unusual, but if they were called for delivery, it would require 528 million ounces of silver. Now, there's only 415 million ounces of silver in Comx and of that only 100 million 130 million is available for delivery at the moment. So there's more contract more uh demands for silver because people have bought futures contracts and the coral is people are short 450 million. So it's 450 million long 450 million short. We don't know who the longs are. The longs could be institutions which have to get that silver come what may. They might be for example car manufacturers, silver panel, solar panel manufacturers, uh electronics industry, defense industry or other industries who've got to have it. Might be exchange rated funds who bought it forward because they've got they they've they've they've got money in the door. They can't find the spot silver so they bought it forward anyway to get make sure they're covered. We don't know. We don't know who the longs are. They might be taking delivery. Could be family offices, could be hedge funds, we don't know. They might be taking delivery. Um, and we don't know who the shorts are, but we can assume they're the what's called the bullion banks who traditionally roll over shorts and make some money because when you sell silver forward, you get a higher price for it than spot. So, you sell it forward, wait till the spot month, buy it back, and sell it forward, wait till the spot month, sell it forward, buy it back. So, it's a it's a a rolling thing guar as a guaranteed way of making money as long as you can get the silver when it matures. But if the silver isn't around and everybody else wants the silver as well, well at the moment there just isn't enough in comx. That's a fact. If all those contract now what we're going to get what I'm going to get to is how likely is it that those March contracts will be called for delivery as to the more customary uh thing which has happened in the past where most of them were rolled over in 2025. I'm just looking at it now. Every single month, the amount of silver called called for delivery was several multiples of what had been called for delivery in 2024. So month after month, more people than ever in percentage were calling for delivery than they had the month before. For example, in the month of November, four times as many uh comix delivery notices were delivered in December uh November 25 as November 24. But let's look at January 26. So I'll start with 2024. Now January is not a big month, but it gives us a a feeling of which way things are going. In January 2024, 1,360 contracts were called for delivery. In January 25, 2370 contracts were called for delivery. That's nearly twice as much. How many ounces does one contract represent? 5,000 ounces. 5,000. When you say a thousand contracts, you have to multiply that times a 5,000 to figure out the ounces of silver. Okay. January is not a big month. A big month is March. Just to put that in perspective. So, but what happens in January tells us what might happen in March. So we had 2024 2025 almost double the number of were called for delivery. 7 times as many have already been called for delivery as 2024. Seven times as many it's more than seven times so 2025. That's 2024. So it's about three and a half about three and a half times 2025. Holy. So everybody is buying silver and rather than rolling it over into more paper contracts, they're actually standing for delivery of the physical silver. So it's being drained. So So what I can see and is approximately all of the contracts which were outstanding for January approximately have been called for delivery. Someone is taking almost all of them. Someone is taking that silver out. We don't know who it is, but they're saying I'd rather have the physical than a paper promise to get it in three months time because they could just roll that contract forward. So that money is being that that silver is being taken out. Um and I and it's not all of them, but it's it's a high percentage, a very high percentage and the highest percentage probably ever. Um, so when we get to March, if we have a very high percentage of contracts called and I can tell you, let's say in March uh 2025, there were three times as many contracts called in 25 is 24. So let's let's say it's four times as many as 205. So there were six and now I'm going to do some math on the back of the room here. There were 16,149 contracts called for delivery in March 25. Uh let's take four times that. Uh that's 64,000 roughly 65,000. So 65,000 contracts of 5,000 of of 10,000 ounces. Uh that's is that am I 325? You've done it. Good. 325 million ounces of which only 113 are available for delivery. So what happens? What if let's say let's say that happens and COMX doesn't have the silver what happens to the price of silver and what do they actually do like like so here's what happens the price and this is provided they don't decide to close the market or something stupid like that but in a free market what happens the price of silver goes up and up and up until someone says I'm rolling or or here you are. You know, I'm I'm out of here. Here's here's my s you you you take it. So, at a at a certain price level, the silver gets squeezed out of somewhere. But the trouble is, of course, it's still got to be in eligible rights size bars, 500 5,000 ounce bars. And there isn't enough eligible registered silver at the moment in existence to do that. You know, it's not even that much money. I was looking at it. 113 uh what was the number? 113 million ounces is only like 11 billion today in silver which like I mean that's a lot of money to me or you know whatever but 11 billion in the markets I mean Elon Musk could buy all of that with like a a credit card like that's really not that much in terms of value 11 billion is nothing I mean take take a a midsized mega cap company like Exxon Mobile that's 600 billion right so like and of course we're not even talking about the videos of Microsoft which are much much much bigger you know, which are in the trillions. So there's really this is a very thin market. This silver market is very thin. Yep. You don't need a lot of people who hold Exxon Mobile or Nvidia or Microsoft or anything else to say, I'll I'll take 5% of my profit and stick it into the precious metals just in case and the price goes to the moon. Yeah. And if if the like if Donald Trump steps up and says we need 500 billion more in military spending and and we have to have silver for our fanciest weapons that we used to kill each other with then I guess 11 billion could easily go towards silver the government. It sounds like that's like yeah very very reachable number. Yeah that's a little I mean it's it's a little scary I guess is the word. Is that right? reticence I would have on that is I probably wouldn't plan uh my investment strategy around what Mr. Trump says. No, no, no. Right. [laughter] No, I think there's I think there's a chance the Pentagon's probably buying. I think it probably has become a military strategic military. It's it it's possible, but it doesn't really matter. We don't have to know. We only have to listen to what silver is telling us about itself. And what is it saying? It's saying the price is higher because more people want to buy it. And it doesn't we don't care. You know, silver doesn't care who wants to buy it. Doesn't it doesn't care that Joe Sap is uh walking down to the coin shop and saying, "Here's my silver. Uh what will you give me for this?" And the dealer says, "Well, I'll give you $20 below the silver price." And Joe says, "I don't like that. Give me more." You know, silver price doesn't care. What the silver price cares about is someone out there is paying the price.